2022 NBA playoff picture: Lakers starting to look lottery bound; Warriors jump back into No. 3 seed

The Mavericks laid an egg in a 32-point loss to the Wizards on Friday, and for the moment they have fallen back below the Warriors into the West’s No. 4 seed. 

Also in the West, the Lakers’ play-in hopes took a massive hit with a loss to the Pelicans on Friday. Los Angeles now trails the No. 10 Spurs by an effective two games (Spurs have clinched the tiebreaker via conference record) with five games left each. 

In the East, Miami strengthened its grip on the No. 1 seed with Milwaukee’s loss to the Clippers. Miami now leads the Bucks by one game and currently owns the tiebreaker via a slightly better conference record, making that lead effectively two games with five to play. 

We’re going to be keeping close tabs on the playoff race with daily updates the rest of the way. Below is where things stand entering play on Saturday, April 2.

NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times and is constantly updating to reflect changing circumstances to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Phoenix Suns

Phoenix has clinched the No. 1 overall seed. 

• Current first-round matchup: TBD (play-in results)  

2. Memphis Grizzlies 

The Grizzlies have clinched the No. 2 seed. 

• Current first-round matchup: Timberwolves vs. Clippers play-in winner

3. Golden State Warriors

The Warriors moved one game up in the loss column on the Mavericks by virtue of Dallas’ loss to the Wizards on Friday. The Warriors are two games up on the No. 5 Jazz, who they play on Saturday. If the Warriors win that game, they’ll go up an effective four games on Utah with four to play, essentially sealing a top-four seed. 

• Projected seed: 4
• Current first-round matchup: Nuggets
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Jazz: Warriors lead season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Denver: Nuggets have clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage

4. Dallas Mavericks 

The Mavericks inexplicably lost to the Wizards by 32 points on Friday to fall one game back of the No. 3 Warriors. Dallas is one game up on No. 5 Utah and an effective three games up on No. Denver. The Mavericks have clinched a playoff spot. 

• Projected seed: 3
• Current first-round matchup: Jazz
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Warriors: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Jazz: Utah currently owns as division leader (season series tied 2-2)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Dallas has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Timberwolves: Dallas leads season series 2-1 with one game to play

5. Utah Jazz 

The Jazz play Golden State on Saturday. They trail the Warriors by two in the loss column, and a loss would seal the tiebreaker for the Warriors. Win, and Utah would take control of the tiebreaker as division leader with a 2-2 season series. Utah leads the No. 6 Nuggets by an effective two games with the tiebreaker sealed and five to play. 

• Projected seed: 5
• Current first-round matchup: Mavericks
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Jazz trail season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Mavericks: Utah currently owns as division leader (season series tied 2-2)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Jazz have clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Timberwolves: Jazz have clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage

6. Denver Nuggets 

The Nuggets lost to Minnesota on Friday to fall an effective two games back of No. 5 Utah and an effective three games back of No. 4 Dallas with four to play. Denver is not a lock to stay in the top six. It is up two games on the Timberwolves, who now have secured the tiebreaker, with four to play. 

• Projected seed: 6
• Current play-in matchup: Warriors
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Warriors: Nuggets have clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Jazz: Utah has clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Timberwolves: Timberwolves have clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage

CURRENT PLAY-IN TEAMS

7. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves kept a glimmer of hope alive for a top six-seed with a win over the Nuggets on Friday. Minnesota now trails the Nuggets by two with four to play and the tiebreaker secured. 

• Projected seed: 7
• Current play-in matchup: Clippers
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Jazz: Utah has clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Timberwolves have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage

8. Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers have sealed a spot in the play-in tourney; they can’t get into the top six and they can’t fall out of the top 10. They’re almost assured of ending at No. 8 with a three-game lead on the Pelicans in the loss column with five to play. 

• Projected seed: 8
• Current play-in matchup: Timberwolves
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Pelicans: New Orleans has clinched with 3-0 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Lakers: Clippers have clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage

9. New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans got a huge win over the Lakers on Friday is two games up on the No. 10 Spurs. New Orleans is an effective four games up on the Lakers with five to play and the tiebreaker secured. 

• Projected seed: 9
• Current play-in matchup: Spurs
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Spurs: San Antonio has clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Lakers: Pelicans have clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage

10. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs took a big step toward securing a play-in spot with a victory over the Blazers on Friday. Combined with the Lakers’ loss to New Orleans, the Spurs are now a game up on the Lakers in the loss column but that lead is effectively games as San Antonio has control of the tiebreaker. 

• Projected seed: 10
• Current play-in matchup: Pelicans
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Pelicans: San Antonio has clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Lakers: San Antonio has clinched tiebreaker via conference record

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

• Los Angeles Lakers: Trail No. 10 San Antonio by one in loss column with five to play (Spurs own tiebreaker). You can’t rule anything out, but this loss to the Pelicans felt like the last gasp of a Lakers team that has been clinging to the hope, however illogical, that LeBron James and Anthony Davis could flip the proverbial switch once they were back on the floor together. They both played on Friday, and they were both really good. And the Lakers still couldn’t beat the Pelicans. Are they really going to make up two games on the Spurs over the next five? It’s feeling more and more like L.A. is bound for the lottery. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Miami Heat

The idle Heat strengthened their grip on the No. 1 seed on Friday by way of Milwaukee’s loss to the Clippers. The Heat now lead the No. 2 Bucks by one in the loss column, but currently that lead is effectively two as Miami would win the tiebreaker as of today with a slightly better conference record. The Heat have a two-loss lead over the No. 3 Celtics and No. 4 Sixers with five games to play. The Heat have clinched a playoff spot. 

• Projected seed: 1
• Current first-round matchup: TBD (play-in results)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Milwaukee: Heat currently own via conference record (season series 2-2, both teams leading division)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Boston: Celtics have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Philadelphia: Heat currently own as division leader (season series tied 2-2)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Heat have clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage with one matchup remaining

2. Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks lost to the Clippers on Friday and now trail the No. 1 Heat by one in the loss column (lead is effectively two at the moment for Miami as it has the tiebreaker via conference record, but that could change). The Bucks lead the No. 3 Celtics and No. 4 Sixers by one in the loss column; they still have one game vs. Boston left in a game that could seal the tiebreaker for Boston. Milwaukee has clinched a playoff spot. 

• Projected seed: 2
• Current first-round matchup: Cavs vs. Nets play-in winner
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: Miami currently owns via conference record (season series 2-2, both teams leading division)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Boston: Bucks trail season series 2-1 with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Philadelphia: Bucks have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Bucks lead season series 2-0 with two games remaining

3. Boston Celtics

The Celtics are tied in the loss column with the No. 4 Sixers. They are one back of No. 2 Milwaukee and two back of No. 1 Miami. Boston has one more game vs. Milwaukee. Boston leads No. 5 Chicago and No. 6 Toronto by two in the loss column with one game remaining vs. the Bulls, which will decide the tiebreaker. The Celtics have clinched a playoff spot. 

• Projected seed: 3
• Current first-round matchup: Raptors
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: Celtics have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one matchup left
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Milwaukee: Celtics lead season series 2-1 with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Philadelphia: Celtics currently own with better Atlantic division record (head-to-head tied 2-2)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Season series tied 1-1 with one game remaining

4. Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers lost to Detroit on Thursday to drop to the No. 4 seed, tied in the loss column with the No. 3 Celtics and now one back of the No. 2 Bucks. The Sixers trails the No. 1 Heat by two in the loss column. If the Sixers and Celtics finished tied, being that they’re both in the Atlantic Division and the season series is tied 2-2, the next tiebreaker would be division record, which would go to Boston at the moment (9-7 vs. 6-9 for Philly). 

• Projected seed: 4
• Current first-round matchup: Bulls
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: Miami currently owns via conference record (season series tied 2-2, both teams leading division)  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Milwaukee: Bucks have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Boston: Boston currently owns with better Atlantic division record (head-to-head tied 2-2)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Sixers have clinched via 4-0 head-to-head advantage

5. Chicago Bulls

The Bulls a basically assured of a top-six seed with an effective four-game lead over the No. 7 Cavs with five to play. Chicago is tied in the loss column with No. 6 Toronto (Bulls have clinched the tiebreaker), and it trails No. 4 Boston by two games with one head-to-head remaining. SportsLine projections have Chicago falling below Toronto to the No. 6 seed. 

• Projected seed: 6
• Current first-round matchup: 76ers
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: Heat have clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage with one matchup remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Milwaukee: Bulls trail season series 2-0 with two games remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Philadelphia: Sixers have clinched via 4-0 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Boston: Season series tied 1-1 with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Toronto: Chicago has clinched tiebreaker via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Cleveland: Chicago has clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage

6. Toronto Raptors 

The Raptors are three games ahead of the Cavs for the No. 6 seed (Cleveland has the tiebreaker). The Raptors are tied with the No. 5 Bulls (Chicago has clinched the tiebreaker). SportsLine projections have the Raptors jumping Chicago and finishing as the No. 5 seed. 

• Projected seed: 5
• Current play-in matchup: Celtics
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Chicago has clinched tiebreaker via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Cleveland: Cavs have clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage with game remaining

CURRENT PLAY-IN TEAMS

7. Cleveland Cavaliers 

The Cavaliers are three games back of the No. 6 Raptors (Cleveland has the tiebreaker) and the No. 5 Bulls (Chicago has the tiebreaker). The Cavs have a two-game lead over the No. 8 Nets with five to play, and they play each other in the final week of the season. 

• Projected seed: 7
• Current first-round matchup: Nets
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Bulls have clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Toronto: Cavs have clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Brooklyn: Nets lead season series 2-1 with one matchup remaining

8. Brooklyn Nets 

The Nets are in a three-way tie with No. 9 Charlotte and No. 10 Atlanta with five games to play. At present, Brooklyn gets the edge as the No. 8 seed because in a three-way tie among non-division leaders, the head-to-head winning percentage against the teams involved in the tie becomes the next tiebreaker. Right now, Brooklyn is a combined 3-2 vs. Atlanta and Charlotte; Charlotte is 4-4 against Brooklyn and Atlanta; Atlanta is 2-4 against Charlotte and Brooklyn.

• Projected seed: 8
• Current play-in matchup: Cavs
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Cleveland: Nets lead season series 2-1 with one matchup remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Charlotte: Hornets have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Atlanta: Nets have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one game remaining

9. Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets are in a three-way tie with the No. 8 Nets and No. 10 Hawks. At present, Brooklyn gets the edge as the No. 8 seed because in a three-way tie among non-division leaders, the head-to-head winning percentage against the teams involved in the tie becomes the next tiebreaker. Right now, Brooklyn is a combined 3-2 vs. Atlanta and Charlotte; Charlotte is 4-4 against Brooklyn and Atlanta; Atlanta is 2-4 against Charlotte and Brooklyn.

• Projected seed: 9
• Current play-in matchup: Hawks
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Brooklyn: Hornets have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Atlanta: Hornets currently own via conference record (season series tied 2-2)

10. Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are in a three-way tie with the No. 8 Nets and No. 9 Hornets. At present, Brooklyn gets the edge as the No. 8 seed because in a three-way tie among non-division leaders, the head-to-head winning percentage against the teams involved in the tie becomes the next tiebreaker. Right now, Brooklyn is a combined 3-2 vs. Atlanta and Charlotte; Charlotte is 4-4 against Brooklyn and Atlanta; Atlanta is 2-4 against Charlotte and Brooklyn.

• Projected seed: 10
• Current play-in matchup: Hornets
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Brooklyn: Nets have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Charlotte: Charlotte currently owns via conference win percentage